Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 8.529283e-05 0.000101 0.000118 0.000138 0.000160 0.000183 0.000209
2025-01-12 6.122692e-05 0.000082 0.000105 0.000134 0.000167 0.000205 0.000249
2025-01-19 5.183286e-05 0.000075 0.000102 0.000137 0.000178 0.000226 0.000285
2025-01-26 4.000916e-05 0.000063 0.000093 0.000131 0.000179 0.000236 0.000308
2025-02-02 3.407342e-05 0.000058 0.000089 0.000132 0.000187 0.000253 0.000337
2025-02-09 2.817609e-05 0.000052 0.000085 0.000131 0.000192 0.000266 0.000363
2025-02-16 2.542424e-05 0.000050 0.000085 0.000136 0.000203 0.000288 0.000398
2025-02-23 2.197971e-05 0.000047 0.000083 0.000137 0.000210 0.000303 0.000427
2025-03-02 1.742444e-05 0.000041 0.000077 0.000132 0.000208 0.000307 0.000440
2025-03-09 1.419860e-05 0.000036 0.000072 0.000129 0.000210 0.000315 0.000458
2025-03-16 1.190377e-05 0.000033 0.000070 0.000128 0.000213 0.000326 0.000480
2025-03-23 1.026687e-05 0.000031 0.000068 0.000129 0.000219 0.000339 0.000506
2025-03-30 8.149781e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000128 0.000222 0.000351 0.000530
2025-04-06 6.041720e-06 0.000024 0.000060 0.000124 0.000222 0.000357 0.000548
2025-04-13 5.124688e-06 0.000023 0.000060 0.000126 0.000231 0.000376 0.000583
2025-04-20 3.583085e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000121 0.000228 0.000379 0.000596
2025-04-27 2.868123e-06 0.000018 0.000054 0.000122 0.000234 0.000394 0.000626
2025-05-04 2.140304e-06 0.000016 0.000051 0.000121 0.000237 0.000404 0.000649
2025-05-11 1.874457e-06 0.000016 0.000052 0.000126 0.000248 0.000427 0.000690
2025-05-18 1.474252e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000127 0.000255 0.000443 0.000721
2025-05-25 9.002938e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000122 0.000251 0.000444 0.000731
2025-06-01 5.667282e-07 0.000011 0.000044 0.000119 0.000251 0.000450 0.000749
2025-06-08 3.679003e-07 0.000010 0.000043 0.000118 0.000254 0.000461 0.000773